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China predicted that the death toll from Monday's earthquake would top 50,000 as the government approved the first group of foreign experts to help with rescue efforts -- a stark acknowledgment that the complexities of the disaster are proving too big to handle alone.
The announcement Thursday that a Japanese team of relief workers would be able to join the hunt for survivors follows days of frustration for many foreign disaster experts who have offered help but have been politely refused by Beijing. Some Chinese officials have said the difficulty of reaching many of the areas most damaged by the magnitude-7.9 quake would have rendered foreign experts' assistance ineffective.
That position was reversed, with little explanation, when the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said China will now accept offers from foreign emergency-response units to bring sniffer dogs, fiber-optic probes and other technology to locate survivors. The first team, from Japan, arrived in China Thursday night. A team from Taiwan, the independently ruled island that China claims as part of its territory, is also being allowed in. In addition, Beijing posted a domestic appeal for equipment like shovels.
Announcing the decision on the Japanese group, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Qin Gang said China is continuing to assess how foreign governments might help. 'We thank these countries' governments and people for their sympathy and support for the Chinese government and Chinese people,' Mr. Qin said.
For many of those trapped or buried in rubble, the new assistance may arrive too late. While survivors are known to have lived as long as 15 days under collapsed buildings, earthquake experts say chances of survival drop sharply after 72 hours, particularly without water. For victims of this week's China quake, that threshold passed Thursday afternoon locally.
The new projected death toll announced Thursday is more than triple the figure given just a day earlier. Rescuers have only recently begun reaching some of the most devastated places, many of which lie in remote mountain areas cut off by landslides.
A toll of more than 50,000 people would rank the quake among the 20 deadliest of all time, according to U.S. Geological Survey figures. Already more than 100,000 people are officially listed as injured, with 10 million directly affected.
Chinese authorities have mobilized perhaps the biggest rescue effort in the nation's modern history, spearheaded by the People's Liberation Army. The quick mobilization of 130,000 military recruits and police officers, some equipped with high-tech gear, has been praised by some disaster experts and many Chinese as a demonstration of Beijing's determination to save as many lives as possible.
Relief efforts seemed to be gaining some momentum Thursday. Military and police units from other provinces were visible on the roads in Sichuan province, the site of the quake's epicenter. Government-issued blue tents, emblazoned with the Chinese characters for Earthquake Rescue, have begun popping up amid the debris in devastated villages.
In an emergency, timing, organization and expertise are critical. Governments in the past, including Japan in 1995, have been too proud to accept outside help, perhaps worsening the situation. But a lack of foreign participation isn't always to blame when rescues go wrong. The Bush administration was criticized for its own slow response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
A few foreign aid personnel have entered the disaster zone, but they were generally specialists in helping victims recover, rather than search-and-rescue teams.
Officials of leading aid organizations said that, unlike the specialists now headed to China, they had little reason to be part of the immediate response and aren't equipped for massive mobilization as China's military is.
Among Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's stops on Wednesday was an operation run by U.S.-based Heart to Heart International, which Chinese media reports said has 16 people in the city of Beichuan treating injured people. 'On behalf of the Chinese government, I want to express my gratitude to American people and the U.S. government's support for this huge natural disaster in China,' Mr. Wen was quoted as saying.
But other offers of help more tailored to urgent rescue operations -- offers that began pouring in from abroad almost immediately after Monday's quake -- have languished. Some of the Japanese firefighters now headed for China, for instance, spent all day Tuesday and Wednesday at airports in Japan, waiting in vain for a signal from Beijing that they would be welcome, according to an official of Japan's Fire and Disaster Management Agency.
Japan and Taiwan are two of the most seismically active places on Earth, and each has specialists trained in early response to earthquake emergencies.
Within hours of Thursday's announcement by China, Japan dispatched a 30-member emergency relief team that hoped to arrive at the disaster area early Friday, according to a government spokesman in Tokyo and Chinese state-run media. The group was to include police and fire and logistical experts, along with three sniffer dogs and equipment such as fiber-optic scopes and special drills.
Taiwan's Red Cross Society said it would immediately send a 20-person emergency rescue and relief team to Sichuan.
Still, other offers of help remain unanswered, including a new request Thursday from the Japan Rescue Association to send in its sniffer dogs. China said it couldn't accept nongovernmental assistance, according to Yumi Kurata, a spokeswoman for the group. 'If we cannot get there by the end of tomorrow, there won't be much meaning for us to go,' she said.
中国预计周一四川大地震的死亡人数将超过5万人，政府已批准首批外国专业人员帮助抢救幸存者，此举也显示出这次灾难的复杂程度已令中国意识到难以独立完成救援。
周四中国政府宣布，日本的一支救援队将加入到搜寻幸存者的工作中。而此前数天，许多外国救灾专家曾表示准备提供帮助，都遭到中国政府的婉拒。一些中国官员表示，难以抵达很多受灾最为严重的地区将使外国救援人员难以发挥作用。
中国外交部表示，将接受携带搜救犬、光学探测仪和其他定位幸存者技术装备的外国应急反应队进入灾区，但外交部对于其态度的转变未做解释。来自日本的第一支救援队周四晚上已经抵达中国。台湾的救援队也已经获准进入。此外，中国还向国内呼吁支援铲车等设备。
中国外交部发言人秦刚在宣布有关日本救援队的决定时还表示，中方有关部门正在根据灾区的实际情况认真研究外国政府能够提供的帮助。他说，我们非常感谢这些国家的政府和人民对中国政府和人民表达的慰问和支援。
对许多仍困在或埋在废墟中的人来说，新的救助努力可能来得太晚了。尽管曾有被困在倒塌的建筑物中长达15天仍然生还的记录，但地震专家表示，72小时之后，尤其是如果没有水的话，幸存的几率就会大大下降。对本周的中国地震而言，到周四下午就已经达到了72小时的黄金救援时间门槛。
周四宣布的预计死亡人数比前一天公布的数字增加了两倍多。救援人员刚刚开始赶到一些受灾最严重的地区，其中许多都位于偏远的山区，因为塌方而与外界断绝了交通。
美国地质调查局(U.S. Geological Survey)的数字显示，按照中国官方预计的5万人的死亡人数，这将成为历史上死亡人数最多的20大地震之一。官方数据称受伤人数超过了10万人，受到地震直接影响的有1,000万人。
中国政府组织了也许是中国近代史上最大规模的救灾行动，以解放军作为先头部队。总计有13万人的军人和武警被迅速动员起来，其中一些装备有高科技设备，此举得到了一些救灾专家和许多中国人的赞扬，表明了中国政府尽可能抢救更多生命的决心。
周四的救灾行动看来提高了一些速度。来自其他省份的军人和警察出现在四川省的道路上。政府发放的印有“救灾”字样的蓝色帐篷已开始在村庄的废墟中搭建起来。
在发生紧急情况时，时间、组织和专业知识都至关重要。在过去，包括1995年的日本地震，政府都过于自信，不愿接受外部援助，这可能会令情况更加恶化。但当救援活动出现问题时，缺少外国救援队伍的参与并不总会受到指责。2005年，布什政府就因对卡特里娜飓风反应迟缓而饱受批评。
一些外国救援人员已经进入了灾区，但他们主要是帮助受伤者康复方面的专家，而非搜救人员。
一些主要救援组织的人员表示，同现在前往中国的专家不同，他们没有什么理由成为应急队伍的成员，也不具备中国军队那样的大规模机动能力。
周三中国总理温家宝在现场遇到了总部位于美国的心连心国际组织(Heart to Heart International)的志愿者。中国媒体称在北川县救治受伤人员的这批志愿者共有16人。温家宝说，我代表中国政府感谢美国人民和政府对这场特大自然灾害受灾地区所提供的帮助。
在周一发生地震后，国外的一些机构几乎立刻就提出了大量针对专门情况的救援措施，但多未收到积极的回应。比如，日本消防厅(Fire and Disaster Management Agency)的官员称，一些现在已前往中国的日本消防队员周二和周三全天都呆在日本的机场，徒劳地等待中国政府欢迎他们进入灾区的消息。
日本和台湾都属于地震多发区，都拥有经过地震应急反应专业培训的专家。
据日本政府发言人和中国国营媒体表示，在中国周四宣布同意日本救援队进入灾区后的几小时内，日本就派出了一支由30人组成的救援队，预计将在周五早些时候到达灾区。队伍中包括警察、消防和后勤专家，还有三条搜救犬和光学探测镜及专用钻具等设备。
台湾红十字会表示，将立即向四川派遣由20人组成的紧急救援队。
不过，也有一些提供帮助的要求仍未得到答复，其中包括日本救援协会(Japan Rescue Association)周四 犬的要求。该协会发言人Yumi Kurata称，中方表示不接受非政府救援行动。她说，如果我们不能在明天到达那里，再去就没有很大意义了。
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